Market Outlook Headlines

Market outlook for October,2012

Rajesh Singla

  Trading strategy for the Week:   During yesterday’s session, the Nifty has managed to cross the stiff resistance level ...

Market outlook for the month of September,2012

Rajesh Singla

  Last Month we asked our readers to buy Nifty when it was trading at 5280 levels and asked them ...

Market Outlook for the month of August,2012

Rajesh Singla

  Market Outlook for the month of August   FII’s were net buyers in cash market segment; they  were net ...

Market Outlook for the month of July

Rajesh Singla

Trading Strategy: Nifty: Until yesterday’s session, indices were struggling to  close above 5300 mark. Hence, we witnessed a  cluster of ...

Market Outlook for the month of June

Rajesh Singla

Weekly Strategy for Nifty:  The global financial uncertainty and rupee depreciation is proving to be extremely detrimental for our markets. ...

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Should you buy Stocks in this Sensex fall?

Rajesh Singla

Markets are falling and have come to 16,000 levels. Read Marc Faber report where he suspects the pain in the ...

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Market Outlook for the month of May, 2012

Rajesh Singla

Trading Strategy for the Week: The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted ...

Market Outlook for the month of April,2012

Rajesh Singla

Highest open interest is at 5400 Calls and 5000 Puts showing that this should be the resistance and support for Nifty series. Support for 5000 Puts is quite strong and should not be breached. On the other side, 5400 level can be taken out. Trade with positive bias. Don’t short Nifty

Market Outlook for the month of February

Rajesh Singla

Last month, we asked readers not to short the market & predicted consolidation in January series. After January F&O series got expired on 19th January, Market rallied 300 points on Nifty. Here is how we feel nifty will behave for the month of February

Market Outlook for the month of January, 2012

Rajesh Singla

Highest Open interest is at 4500 Puts & 5000 Calls which should be the broad range of Nifty for the Month of January. Lows of 4530 will be difficult to break for the Nifty in the month of January. Even in worst case scenario, we don’t see Nifty breaking 4400 - 4500 range in the month of January.

Will Nifty hold 4700 in December series?

Rajesh Singla

In a worst case scenario, if indices sustain below 15330 /4540 level then the possibility of testing monthly 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 7697 / 2252 (October 31, 2008) to 21108 / 6338 (November 30, 2010) cannot be ruled out. This retracement level is at 14400 / 4300.

Nifty Outlook for the November Expiry,2011

Rajesh Singla

It’s quite clear now that FII’s are on sell mode. Yesterday too they sold in cash market segment and shorted in index futures significantly. They are also hedging their short exposure by buying some at-the money calls. PCR-OI has fallen substantially especially because of yesterday’s development in options segment. We saw most of the puts in November series unwinding positions while 5000 and 5200 saw substantial buildup

Market Outlook for the month of November,2011

Rajesh Singla

FII’s continue to buy in cash market segment; they were net buyer’s worth of `359/- cr. in yesterday’s trade. On Derivatives front they were net sellers in index future but the quantum of selling was quite less, while in index options they continue to be net buyers and we fill is more of buying of call options as IV is quite low. On Options front some buildup was seen in Nifty 5400 and 5500 call options, while in put options 5200 have seen the maximum buildup. FII’s continue to buy in cash market segment; they were net buyers worth of `359/- cr. in yesterday’s trade. On Derivatives front they were net sellers in index future but the quantum of selling was quite less, while in index options they continue to be net buyers and we fill is more of buying of call options as IV is quite low. Nifty expiry in the last month was as expected. It consolidated between the range of 4700-5200. After the expiry, market shoots almost 200 points on Nifty in a single day. Right now, the highest open Interest is at 5400 Call & 5000 Puts which signifies the immediate Resistance & Support for the market. After 2-3 months, markets have shown some strength & we have seen a range shifting upwards a lil which is a positive sign. With positive news flowing in from West, it looks highly unlikely that we may go to 4700 levels again in November. After some days of consolidation, we may again try to take the previous high of 5400 on Nifty in this series. It is good time to start a long. We were buyers of specific stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank/Mutual funds in the last fall. We started accumulated from 5400 levels & have bought aggressively near 4700 levels. Both the stocks has outperformed Nifty & shown good jump from the lows & same is the case in the mutual funds. Disclaimer: I was buying Tax saving mutual funds in every dip & has an average buying on around 16,900 levels. I will accumulate more if there is another dip to 4800-4900 levels in this month series.

Market Outlook for the month of October,2011

Rajesh Singla

Last week we observed that 4300 put has adding significant open interest along with at-the-money puts and implied volatility was increasing, indicating buying of puts was happening. Now we are witnessing unwinding in this put with fall in IV. Also in calls despite there being strong resistance of 5100-5150 we are seeing rising activity in 5200 strike. We take this as positive signal and refrain to suggest forming any short positions for time being. Slowly but steadily FII’s are now buying in cash market segment which is quite encouraging. They continue to cover their short positions in index futures and for a change they were inactive in index options on net basis. Bears who wrote 4800 and 4900 calls in anticipation of steep fall are now covering those positions and also out-of-money put options are seeing unwinding of positions. 4900 and 5000 puts are now attracting writer’s attention. Highest Open interest for Nifty is at 4800 & has a feeble support. We may just move in a range for October series & consolidate in the range of 4800- 5200. No considerable resistance is observed which means bears are not targeting to bang the market in short term. Neither we are having a strong support at 4800 levels, buying conviction could have evolved. We will stick with our buying pattern whenever Nifty goes below 4800 levels. Accumulation should go at these are very good levels to get in the market. [polldaddy poll="5569419"]

Market outlook for the month of September,2011

Rajesh Singla

Some cash base buying was visible by FII's on Friday however the net activity in derivatives segment was muted despite high volumes as well as high volatility. 5000 put saw huge addition in open interest and surprisingly this has happened despite market coming down from higher levels and IV's too has come down. Highest Open Interest is at 4700 levels which shows a strong support for these levels. Even 4800 seems to have a decent support. After spanking the Nifty so hard in the last series, bear seems to take some rest as there are no considerable resistance which shows that expect Nifty to cover some ground before they can start putting short in the nifty again. Nifty seems to grind in the range of 4800-5100 for this series. Lot of stocks is at very attractive valuations to start nibbling. The strategy going forward will be to keep buying in small quantities when the nifty comes to lower end of the range of 4700 sub levels.

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